By Chisomo Phiri

As discussions grow louder around a possible political alliance between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the United Transformation Movement (UTM) ahead of the September 16 general elections, political commentator Lyson Sibande has described such a coalition as ‘politically illogical and practically impossible.’

Responding to growing public inquiries and speculation in a Facebook post seen by this publication, Sibande argues that the basic principles of political survival and strategy render any DPP-UTM alliance untenable,especially one where UTM fields the presidential candidate.

“Politics, first and foremost, is about the pursuit of power and survival.An alliance where UTM produces the presidential candidate would deny DPP both power and long-term survival,” says Sibande.

The political commentator explains that should  Dalitso Kabambe lead a joint DPP-UTM ticket and win the presidency, DPP could be systematically pushed out of power.

He argues that Kabambe and UTM would likely consolidate authority, exclude DPP elites from key cabinet and government positions, and promote a narrative of a ‘fresh and clean’ administration—one untainted by DPP’s perceived corruption.

“Some DPP figures could even face legal consequences.Once Kabambe is in office, protected by the Constitution, there would be nothing DPP could do—just as UDF failed to contain Bingu wa Mutharika between 2005 and 2009,” he warns.

Sibande also questions the logic of DPP surrendering its presidential candidacy to a smaller party like UTM.

“DPP is still more powerful than UTM.Even in its weakened post-2020 state, DPP has a plausible path to the presidency if MCP fails to secure the 50%+1 threshold in the first round.”

“UTM cannot win the election and likely won’t even place second. That position belongs to DPP. It would be political suicide for DPP to hand over its candidacy and future to UTM,”he says.

He adds that even under the most unfavorable circumstances—such as former President Arthur Peter Mutharika being unable to campaign due to health reasons—DPP would prefer to campaign and lose on its own rather than support UTM.

“As long as APM is alive and available, DPP will contest.Even if it means bringing him out once or twice to speak, the party will manage the rest without him—as they have since 2020,” says Sibande.

He concludes by reaffirming his position:“A scenario where both DPP and UTM lose independently is safer and more acceptable for DPP than one where DPP helps UTM win. Based on basic political logic, I still firmly predict that a DPP-UTM alliance will fail.”