By Wadza Botomani
As Malawi approaches the 2025 elections, opposition parties—particularly the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—are scrambling to form alliances in hopes of unseating President Lazarus Chakwera and the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). Social media is awash with cryptic messages suggesting that a grand opposition coalition is imminent, with rumors swirling that AFORD’s Enock Chihana could be Peter Mutharika’s running mate or that Dalitso Kabambe might lead the ticket with Francis Mwanamveka as his deputy .
But truth be told, no opposition alliance today can replicate the magic of the 2020 Tonse Alliance. The reason? Saulos Chilima was the X-factor. His charisma, strategic campaigning, and broad appeal were instrumental in propelling Chakwera past the 50%+1 threshold. Today, the opposition lacks a figure of his caliber—and without that, Chakwera is poised to win, and win big.
1. Chilima’s Unmatched Campaigning Power The 2020 Tonse Alliance succeeded because Chilima was a political powerhouse. He crisscrossed the country, energizing voters with his eloquence and sharp messaging. Unlike traditional politicians, he connected with both urban youth and rural communities, framing the election as a movement for change rather than just another political contest .
In contrast, today’s opposition lacks a unifying force:
– Enock Chihana (AFORD) brings no significant numbers or added value. His party is a minor player, and his influence is limited .
– Dalitso Kabambe (U) has struggled to craft a resonant message. His campaign lacks momentum, failing to inspire either the youth or rural voters .
– Joyce Banda (PP) has seen her influence wane. Even in her Zomba stronghold, she struggles to rally substantial support .
Without a Chilima-like figure, any opposition alliance will be a patchwork of weak links rather than a formidable coalition.
2. UTM’s Decline and the Absence of a Successor
Chilima’s death left a void that UTM has failed to fill. Kabambe saw the gap and jumped on it with the hope of reuniting UTM back to DPP. The strategy seems to be working as UTM is heading in one direction and that is to DPP.
Chilima’s genius was his long-term strategy—he knew UTM couldn’t win alone, so he kept the alliance intact, banking on future political maneuvering. Today, UTM is fractured, and without Chilima’s vision, it is no longer a kingmaker .
3. MCP’s Strategic Positioning
While the opposition flounders, Chakwera’s MCP is consolidating power. The collapse of the Tonse Alliance has forced MCP to seek new partnerships, but even without UTM, Chakwera remains the strongest candidate. The party is leveraging incumbency advantages—state resources, visibility, and a narrative of continuity—while the opposition struggles to present a coherent alternative .
Moreover, Chakwera’s government has made some visible strides, such as the recent opening of the National Cancer Centre and the launch of the Youth Innovation Fund, which bolster his image as a leader delivering on promises .
4. The Illusion of Opposition Unity
The DPP’s social media propaganda suggests a grand alliance is near, but history shows that Malawian opposition coalitions are fragile. The 2020 Tonse Alliance worked because Chilima and Chakwera had a clear, mutually beneficial pact. Today, the DPP’s potential partners—AFORD, UDF, or others—have conflicting ambitions.
– Mutharika, at 84, is seen as a transitional figure, not a long-term solution. His age and low-energy campaign raise doubts about his viability .
– Atupele Muluzi (UDF) may still run independently, further splitting the opposition vote .
Without a clear leader or shared vision, any alliance will be a marriage of convenience rather than a winning strategy.
Conclusion: Chakwera’s Inevitable Victory
The 2020 Tonse Alliance was a perfect storm—Chilima’s energy, Chakwera’s credibility, and public frustration with the DPP. In 2025, the opposition has no Chilima, no compelling message, and no unity.
Malawians should prepare for a Chakwera victory. The opposition’s best hope is not an alliance but a miracle—and in politics, miracles are rare.
